Last week, Venezuela held its presidential election, resulting in a controversial announcement by its National Electoral Council (CNE) that President Nicolás Maduro secured victory with 51 percent of the vote. However, the CNE did not provide precinct-level voting breakdowns as required by Venezuelan law, causing the opposition to immediately dismiss the announcement as fraudulent and claim victory. Protests erupted in Caracas, during which at least 11 people have died and several thousand have been arrested. We asked four experts what the future holds for Venezuela domestically and internationally.Read their answers below.Fabiana Perera Senior Faculty Associate Defense Security Cooperation UniversityThe Venezuelan opposition won the presidential election on July 28, as demonstrated by them and recognized by a number of democratic countries, including the United States. The opposition has rallied to get President Nicolas Maduro to recognize his defeat. They won the election but can’t celebrate until their candidate is inaugurated as president. Unlike other countries with short lame-duck periods, the Venezuelan constitution mandates that the inauguration happen on January 10. This long timeline can favor Maduro: Though it’s unlikely he’ll start a new term in 2025, he has almost six months to plan or negotiate an exit for himself and possibly his regime. The more he can be perceived as being in power in that timeframe, the higher his chances of negotiating a good outcome for himself. Maduro seems to have assessed that capitulating now, after his opponents won by a landslide, would result in a fate of imprisonment or worse. Denying the victory, repressing dissent, and trying to claim he remains popular are the better option for him now. The Venezuelan opposition and democracies in the region and farther afield need to remain united and strongly pressure the regime to concede that they lost the election.The views expressed here are those solely of
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Last week, Venezuela held its presidential election, resulting in a controversial announcement by its National Electoral Council (CNE) that President Nicolás Maduro secured victory with 51 percent of the vote. However, the CNE did not provide precinct-level voting breakdowns as required by Venezuelan law, causing the opposition to immediately dismiss the announcement as fraudulent and claim victory. Protests erupted in Caracas, during which at least 11 people have died and several thousand have been arrested. We asked four experts what the future holds for Venezuela domestically and internationally.Read their answers below.Fabiana Perera Senior Faculty Associate Defense Security Cooperation UniversityThe Venezuelan opposition won the