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Tensions between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon have been on the rise in recent weeks, especially since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would wind down operations in Gaza and move troops north towards the Lebanese border and Hizballah has increased rocket attacks on Israel. Such a war could quickly spiral into a regional conflagration: Iran has threatened an “obliterating war” if Israel attacks Lebanon, while United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned of catastrophe “beyond imagination” if full-scale war breaks out. We asked four experts to tell us more about the threat of war and how it might be avoided.Read more below.Faysal Itani Senior Director New Lines Institute for Strategy and PolicyA broader Israeli-Hizballah war is increasingly likely. It would be in neither party’s interests. Hizballah knows this but has trapped itself by linking ongoing operations against Israel to the war in Gaza. Yet during this war, Israeli strategic thinking has shifted from seeing these operations as a manageable, temporary side effect to seeing them as justification for war.Israel wants to clear southern Lebanon of Hizballah forces and degrade their ability to threaten northern Israel. Such a war would greatly damage Lebanon, in line with Israeli threats to collectively punish it. Hizballah would launch targeted and indiscriminate attacks on Israeli strategic assets and civilian areas. A ground invasion is possible but would be quite difficult.Israel is not likely to achieve its objectives. There have been many Israeli attempts over the decades to secure its north this way, including a failed 22-year occupation of Lebanon. Hizballah, enjoying local support and open supply lines, tends to return in an open or clandestine manner to target Israel or occupying troops. Israel does not have the means to meaningfully improve its position in Lebanon beyond continued successful targeted strikes.The United States would support Israel but prefers a diplomatic solution