Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***North Korea Over the past few weeks, North Korea has carried out a series of profoundly destabilizing actions, including signing a mutual defense treaty with Russia, test-launching a suspected hypersonic missile, fortifying the border, and continuing to send airborne trash balloons to South Korea.The most significant development over this period was a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang that culminated in the signing of a DPRK-Russia Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership covering mutual defense, arms transfers, and sanctions evasion. The mutual defense provision obliges Russia and North Korea to “provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay” if their partner is “put in a state of war by an armed invasion.” Moscow and Pyongyang made a similar pact in 1961 that was dissolved when the Soviet Union collapsed. Pyongyang still maintains its Cold War-era mutual defense treaty with China, but Beijing has hinted there are limits to its enforcement in 2017. With two powerful allies in the region, Pyongyang’s hand has now been considerably strengthened — this may open space for North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un to increase the severity and frequency of his military’s coercive and provocative actions. This development could increase the likelihood that a miscalculation or a provocation exchange may result in an escalation pulling all the regional players, including the United States, towards wider war.In pursuit of the agreement, North Korea may send engineering and construction units to Russian-occupied Ukraine to help with rebuilding, according to South Korean government sources. The new partnership treaty also includes provisions related to the continued flow of weapons between the partners and cooperation and sanctions evasion. A day after the summit, Putin said the Kremlin “does not rule out” arming North Korea if
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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***North Korea Over the past few weeks, North Korea has carried out a series of profoundly destabilizing actions, including signing a mutual defense treaty with Russia, test-launching a suspected hypersonic missile, fortifying the border, and continuing to send airborne trash balloons to South Korea.The most significant development over this period was a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang that culminated in the signing of a DPRK-Russia Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership covering mutual defense, arms transfers, and sanctions evasion.
