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In Brief: The Prospect of a Ceasefire in Gaza

June 12, 2024
In Brief: The Prospect of a Ceasefire in Gaza
In Brief: The Prospect of a Ceasefire in Gaza

In Brief: The Prospect of a Ceasefire in Gaza

Michael Koplow, Yael Mizrahi-Arnaud, Oren Barak, and Raphael S. Cohen
June 12, 2024
On Monday, the United Nations Security Council passed a U.S.-backed resolution calling for an “immediate, full and complete ceasefire” in Gaza, which the United States says Israel has agreed to. The resolution lays out a three-phased approach to peace, beginning with a six-week ceasefire and the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, then a full return of Israeli hostages in return for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and ending with a plan for the reconstruction of the Palestinian enclave. Despite passage by the Security Council, however, many obstacles remain. We asked four experts to tell us more about the prospects for peace in Gaza and whether a ceasefire will actually be implemented.Read more below. Michael Koplow Chief Policy Officer Israel Policy ForumThe chances of a ceasefire deal being reached were not high to begin with, but recent events have reduced the chances further. Israel has been waiting for a Hamas response to the general framework for over a week, which is a necessary prerequisite for the sides to then figure out the details of a deal. The successful rescue of four Israeli hostages on Saturday and Benny Gantz quitting the government the following day may complicate matters further. Hamas has not seemed eager for a deal in any event, but may now feel as if it cannot consent to an Israeli proposal after its failure to prevent Israel from rescuing hostages in a crowded neighborhood in broad daylight. On the Israeli side, Gantz was the war cabinet figure pushing hardest for an agreement, and his departure will temporarily strengthen the anti-deal hardliners. Without a ceasefire, Hizballah is going to continue its daily fire on Israeli northern communities, which risks a far larger northern war once Israel begins to withdraw troops from Rafah and central Gaza once the Israel Defense

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On Monday, the United Nations Security Council passed a U.S.-backed resolution calling for an “immediate, full and complete ceasefire” in Gaza, which the United States says Israel has agreed to. The resolution lays out a three-phased approach to peace, beginning with a six-week ceasefire and the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, then a full return of Israeli hostages in return for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and ending with a plan for the reconstruction of the Palestinian enclave. Despite passage by the Security Council, however, many obstacles remain. We asked four experts to tell us more about

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