Last week, William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party was inaugurated as president of Taiwan, replacing Tsai Ing-wen as leader of the island nation. Upon his inauguration, Lai told mainland China to “stop threatening Taiwan” and accept the country’s democracy, while China has stepped up military drills around the island since Lai’s election in January. We asked three experts to tell us more about what to expect from Lai’s tenure and how Beijing might respond to the new leader.Read more below. Bonny Lin Director, China Power Project Senior Fellow for Asian Security Center for Strategic & International StudiesChinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s harsh labeling of Taiwan President William Lai and China’s large-scale military exercise Joint Sword-2024A around the island signal that Lai will face significant challenges from Beijing. The Chinese Communist Party perceives Lai’s defiant inauguration speech as reinforcing its previous deep, negative stereotypes about him. Chinese media have characterized Lai as worse than former Taiwan leaders Tsai Ing-wen, Chen Shui-bian, and Lee Teng-hui. As a result, Joint Sword-2024A is likely just the beginning of Beijing’s display of its coercive hand against Lai. It is possible that Beijing could even lower its threshold for the use of coercion or force. Looking at the next four years, there is a significantly increased risk of recurring crises in the Taiwan Strait. Although an invasion of Taiwan is far from a preferred option for Beijing, this is the possibility that a crisis could escalate into a larger contingency, including an invasion. Amanda Hsiao China Senior Analyst International Crisis GroupTaiwanese President Lai Ching-te has signaled a tougher approach to China than predecessor Tsai Ing-wen. More significant than Lai’s resolute statements of Taiwan’s sovereignty was his choice to retract Tsai’s olive branch—she gestured to Beijing’s position that the two sides belong to “one China” without ever accepting it.Beijing is likely both unhappy with,
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Last week, William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party was inaugurated as president of Taiwan, replacing Tsai Ing-wen as leader of the island nation. Upon his inauguration, Lai told mainland China to “stop threatening Taiwan” and accept the country’s democracy, while China has stepped up military drills around the island since Lai’s election in January. We asked three experts to tell us more about what to expect from Lai’s tenure and how Beijing might respond to the new leader.Read more below. Bonny Lin Director, China Power Project Senior Fellow for Asian Security Center for Strategic & International StudiesChinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s harsh labeling
