A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it.***As the Russo-Ukrainian war nears the two-year mark, we asked three experts to tell us more about the state of the conflict and how it might evolve in the coming months. With dwindling American security assistance to Ukraine and Russia’s ongoing winter offensive, what can we expect in 2024?Read more below.Dara Massicot Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceUkraine begins 2024 in a difficult position. Last year’s counteroffensive was unable to break through Russia’s defensive networks and minefields. Political paralysis and delays in Western security assistance have led to negative battlefield outcomes like ammunition rationing and downsized operations. To be very clear: Ukrainian units are at risk of depletion this year unless Western assistance is resumed quickly. At the same time, Russia’s defense production capacity and munitions inventories continue to grow. The Kremlin, sensing weakness, is adjusting its rhetoric and plans accordingly. For months, Russian attacks have increased across the frontline, President Vladimir Putin gloats on TV with glasses of champagne, and large missile strikes on Ukraine have resumed — most recently, three barrages within a span of two weeks.The outlook may appear grim, but it is important to remember that Russia faces challenges too. Recent attacks were possible after stockpiling missiles for months. Russian manpower is stable thanks to straining the volunteer system to its limits, but the Kremlin seems unwilling (for now) to take political risks associated with ordering another round of mobilization. Russia’s materiel advantages are made possible in part by a mobilized economy but also thanks to shipments from Iran, China, and North Korea. Despite their
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A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it.***As the Russo-Ukrainian war nears the two-year mark, we asked three experts to tell us more about the state of the conflict and how it might evolve in the coming months. With dwindling American security assistance to Ukraine and Russia’s ongoing winter offensive, what can we expect in 2024?Read more below.Dara Massicot Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program Carnegie Endowment
