Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***HamasThe timing of Hamas’ assault on Israeli communities surrounding Gaza may have been driven by a few factors. The attack came one day after the 50th anniversary of 1973’s Yom Kippur War, still viewed in Arab quarters as a victory that shattered Israel’s sense of security, so the timing holds great symbolism. It also came during a period of unprecedented Israeli political and societal upheaval emanating from the government’s judicial overhaul, which has adversely impacted the Israel Defense Forces’ preparedness and cohesion. This government’s priorities have also meant that between 70 and 80 percent of the Israel Defense Forces were stationed in the West Bank, leaving southern Israel less manned and more ripe a target. Finally, Hamas and its Iranian backers fear that the momentum toward regional normalization with Israel will leave them more isolated and runs counter to their goal of building an anti-Israel resistance movement.Israel appears determined to end Hamas’ rule of Gaza, which will leave a vacuum in the wake of a comprehensive ground operation. The options at that point will be Israel administering the territory militarily, as was the case before the Oslo Accords and the creation of the Palestinian Authority; enabling the Palestinian Authority’s return to Gaza, which will be politically difficult — if not impossible — on the backs of Israeli tanks; or convincing other regional actors such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to assume control of the territory, which is perhaps the most far-fetched of all options. The end of Hamas will not bring immediate clarity about Gaza’s future.Hamas rally in Gaza last year. Image via Hamas.North KoreaOn Sept. 13, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un
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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***HamasThe timing of Hamas’ assault on Israeli communities surrounding Gaza may have been driven by a few factors. The attack came one day after the 50th anniversary of 1973’s Yom Kippur War, still viewed in Arab quarters as a victory that shattered Israel’s sense of security, so the timing holds great symbolism. It also came during a period of unprecedented Israeli political and societal upheaval emanating from the government’s judicial overhaul, which has adversely