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In 2024, Michael Swaine wrote, “How to Stop the United States and China from Sliding into War,” where he identified areas that could increase the possibility of an armed conflict between the United States and China. Two years later, after recent talks between President Trump and President Xi, we asked Michael to revisit his arguments.Image: U.S. Department of StateIn your 2024 article, you flagged a rising possibility of major armed conflict between China and the United States. That was before American forces became militarily involved in Iran. Does that involvement change your calculus? And critically — does it deter Beijing, or does it invite a provocative move in the Indo-Pacific theater while Washington is stretched?There is a rising possibility of a severe crisis or conflict over Taiwan, but not more broadly. The Iran war has certainly depleted Washington’s arsenal of precision land-attack munitions, but it has also shown that the United States is capable of largely overcoming Russian and Chinese-designed missile defense systems. These and other military developments are significant if a war over Taiwan were to break out in the near term, although it remains very unlikely.Such developments have almost certainly not altered the overall negative dynamic still underway regarding Taiwan, which is based on long-term structural and political trends. These center on the steady erosion of the original understanding that has kept the peace in the Taiwan Strait for decades, exchanging a credible U.S. One China policy for a credible Chinese preference for peaceful unification. Despite this erosion, which increases the chance of miscalculations leading to an escalation crisis, Beijing likely remains committed to its strategy toward achieving unification with Taiwan over a long-time horizon without a resort to kinetic military actions. It is not going to alter that strategy on the basis of tactical military advantages or