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Water disputes can directly drive conflict, but more often, water scarcity acts as a catalyst — one that, combined with other pressures, raises the risk of conflict. This is nothing new; water has shaped human conflict for millennia. What’s changed is the accumulation of stress, as climate change, population growth, human migration, and the intensive demands of agriculture and industry are converging to strain water systems in ways that threaten to exacerbate instability. However, examples of governments cooperating to manage scarce resources also suggest that conflict over water is not inevitable.Water scarcity contributes to the risk of conflict in many parts of the world. We asked four experts to identify a key risk where disputes over water are intensifying the potential for conflict in Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Latin America over the next one to two years.Read more below.Marcus KingProfessor of the Practice in Environment and International Affairs in the Science and Technology in International Affairs Program at Georgetown UniversityThe Sahel — Africa’s semi-arid belt stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea — faces severe climate pressures, including drought and desertification, alongside mounting security challenges.These pressures have intensified farmer-herder conflict by degrading pasture, reducing water access, and disrupting traditional transhumance (migration) routes. More than 15,000 people have been killed in the Sahel and nearby regions since 2010. Water scarcity contributes to this violence, but tribal, sectarian, and ethnic divisions also deepen disputes over access.Violent extremist organizations are also expanding across the region and may increasingly weaponize water by controlling wells, taxing access, targeting users, or denying supplies to hostile communities. Insecurity further obstructs effective water policy implementation, infrastructure maintenance, and conflict resolution.Water scarcity is worsening. According to forecasts, severe localized drought is plausible over the next one to two years in the Sahel, and climate