Episode Notes:

Last weekend, fighters from the Hamas militant group, which controls the Gaza Strip, staged a stunning attack on Israel, killing at least 1,200 people. Israel has responded with an intensive bombing campaign on Gaza, which has now resulted in the deaths of at least 1,000. The Israeli government also cut off water and electricity to the territory. Here to tell us more about Hamas’ attack and the group's strategy is Devorah Margolin, the Blumenstein-Rosenbloom fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

[:49] Who is Hamas? [3:59] Why did Hamas attack now? [7:26] Does Hamas think it can win? What is the strategy? [9:05] What happens to Hamas now?

Episode Transcript

Erin O'Brien: My name is Erin O'Brien and I'm the membership editor at War on the Rocks. You are listening to The WarCast, the members-only podcast for what you need to know now.

Last weekend, fighters from the Hamas militant group, which controls the Gaza Strip, staged a stunning attack on Israel, killing at least 1,200 people. Israel has responded with an intensive bombing campaign on Gaza, which has now resulted in the deaths of at least a thousand. The Israeli government also caught off water and electricity to the territory. Here to tell us more about Hamas' attack and the group's strategy is Devorah Margolin, the Blumenstein-Rosenbloom Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Welcome to The WarCast.

Devorah Margolin: Thank you so much for having me.

Erin O'Brien: So, why don't you start off by telling us a bit more about Hamas. Who are the people in this group and what are their beliefs?

Devorah Margolin: Hamas is a violent is Islamist organization at its core. It is a Muslim Brotherhood inspired group that began as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1960s and '70s in Palestine and was really a grassroots movement at the time. It declared itself as an independent organization in 1987 with its first statement and it, at the time, really began as a purely social movement but then turned into and engaged in acts of violence. I think what's interesting about a group like Hamas is it's a bottom=up ideology. It believes in curating its support from the general population and it does that in a few different ways. First, it provides social services, it provides education for people and food. And it also believes in participating in an existing political system. It doesn't believe in the top-down approach of a group like Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State that believes in just top-down, "Accept our way or get out." It believes in curating that support from the bottom-up.

And in its 1988 charter, the group very much declared who it was to the world. It talked about its connection to the Muslim Brotherhood, but it also said it was very much a Palestinian and a nationalist organization. And what's really interesting is that in its charter, it talks about how those are actually one in the same and are in line with its violent Islamist values. And so it really talks about the role of Islam in this discussion. And also it was very, very clear in its charter that there is no room for negotiations anywhere but only through violence.

In 2006, Hamas did something that was kind of shocking and a little bit different for the group. It participated in political elections for the first time. And again, I harken back to how the group has won support. It's through its social network and its grassroots efforts and it won a majority of the seats, 74 seats, a majority of the 132 seats in the council. And it was part of the change and reform block. And for the first time, Hamas not only entered government but really took part in leading the government. And once it had control, it didn't want to give it up. And I think this is also very interesting. While it does have people always talk about its democratic origins, once it has control, it isn't going to give up that control. And so they refuse to collaborate with the Palestinian Liberation Organization, the PLO.

Since 2007, there is now basically two governance of the Palestinian people. You have the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and you have Hamas in Gaza. And there have not been elections since 2006. And what we've really seen is that while there are democratic origins in the group, that is not the case anymore and it uses violence against those that disagree with it and it maintains its control through violence and top-down power.

Erin O'Brien: Could you tell us a little bit more about this attack? Obviously we're all seeing ... being inundated with information on social media, but tell us a little bit more about this attack and why they did this now, especially considering Israel's almost certain overwhelming response.

Devorah Margolin: I think one of the unique things about who Hamas is, and I kind of harken to it in its charter and again in its updated 2017 document, is that it sees itself as the voice of all Palestinian people and it actually calls itself a Palestinian nationalist organization, but it opens itself to others as well. And I think what's really interesting is that through its actions, Hamas was making it clear to many, right? The normalization between many Arab states and Israel, especially US brokered Saudi talks, really excluded the Israel-Palestine conflict and what was happening in the region. People were talking much more about normalization at a very, very top level, not talking about Israel and Palestinian issues. And I think what Hamas really wanted to make clear is that you cannot talk about normalization with Israel without talking about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And you cannot talk about it without talking about them.

It also highlights, very much, internal strife between the Hamas and the Palestinian authority, right? There's always been this struggle for power since 2007 where we've seen the break off between the two. And so the Palestinian Authority, who the international community recognizes as the leader of the Palestinian people, have been part of pushing certain narratives or parts of these conversations regarding Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And through its actions, Hamas wants to make it clear, "It's not the leader. We are part of this conversation and it is very important and vital that you cannot ignore us and push us out of this conversation."

And I think the timing is also very interesting too. The US administration has been deprioritizing Middle Eastern policy, except for example Iran, which has very much been isolated in its own way. But overall, the US has been deprioritizing Middle East policy. And so this is kind of ... Why is Iran involved possibly? Why is Hezbollah involved? What do these actors have to gain as well? I think those are really important kind of conversations to look at.

Look, Iran has become more isolated. They may or may not have given direct aid or support or said, "We are going to support you." There's reports coming out that Hamas al-Qassam commanders of the military brigade are saying, "Thank you so much to Iran for all of their support." The Wall Street Journal came out with an expose that may or have not yet fully been confirmed. Iran is saying, "It's not us." But I think it's also interesting that even after all of that, Hamas leadership is saying, "Yeah, we had support in backing, but this is purely a Hamas organization and a Hamas attack." They're wanting to take all the credit for themselves. And so we kind of see that Hamas probably would not have launched this attack without kind of some sort of nod from Iran and from Hezbollah. But it is still very much a Palestinian attack.

And I think the third point that I want to point out is the current right wing Israeli government and its policies which for many have been extremely inflammatory, specifically for Hamas. And they see everything about the current administration as a direct attack on itself and specifically Al-Aqsa, which is unique because that is what they named this operation, right? It is all about the protection of Al-Aqsa. And so I think these three factors have come to a head at a very specific point in time.

Erin O'Brien: And so obviously, now we're seeing Gaza be absolutely bombarded by Israel. There are rumors that a ground campaign is coming soon. I mean, what is Hamas' strategy now? How are they planning to counter Israel? Do they think that they can withstand this kind of attack? I mean, what is this going to look like going forward?

Devorah Margolin: I don't think Hamas believes that they can win a war against Israel on their own. I think they're hoping for a few things. I think first and foremost, they're hoping for such a response from Israel that is seen by the international community as so disproportionate that it pales in comparison to their own actions on October 7th, and the international community will rise up in arms against the actions that are happening in Gaza. And I also think they're calling for horizontal escalation. They do not want to be fighting on their own. They want a front to open in the north of Hezbollah. They want to create internal strife in the West Bank. They want Arab citizens of Israel to rise up and they want people to attack Jewish and Israeli targets abroad. They want people to feel unsafe in all ways and they want others to rally to its kind of core.

I think it's interesting. Haniyeh had a speech recently. He said, "The battle has to do with the land of Palestine, Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque, but it's a battle for the entire umma, the entire Muslim community." And that's very much in line with Hamas rhetoric overall, from its charter to its 2017 document. The group has always said, "Yes, this is an issue based in Palestine. This is an issue based here, but it's actually for the entire Muslim community."

Erin O'Brien: So, what do you expect to come of Hamas after all of this?

Devorah Margolin: I think what's to come is a very long war, a long conflict that is going to see increased escalation, unfortunately. I think as the researchers, as policy analysts in the international community, we're going to have to reevaluate our understanding of violent Islamist groups, their ideology, their goals, what they seek to achieve. I think what's really interesting is Israel was caught off guard, but so was the rest of the world. And I think that this action was a major pivot in Hamas strategy. While they have always targeted civilians, they've often targeted adults or they've done attacks like suicide bombings or rocket attacks which have targeted general communities but are seen as casualties of war. But this was a direct targeting of civilian populations, specifically taking of elderly and children. And that in itself is a pivot. And we've already seen internal conversations within the Hamas leadership, some of whom are extremely upset by the targeting of minors and elderly and what that is going to mean for the direction of the group.

I think we're going to see some struggle between the military wing and the political wing. I think we're going to see the group really struggle in the international community. It's strived for 35 years to be seen as a legitimate actor. I think that this is working against what it has tried to work for so long, but it's also made us position clear to the international community. I think we are going to see Hamas as the leader of the Palestinian resistance. It has now clearly made itself that central actor and time will tell if others follow suit and join in the conflict and we do see a horizontal escalation with others joining its fight.

Erin O'Brien: All right. Well, obviously a lot to look out for, to see if any of this escalates further. So thank you so much for coming on The WarCast and for explaining all this to us.

Devorah Margolin: Thank you so much for having me.