Episode Notes:

Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Mike is joined by Dara Massicot to reassess the war and the debates that have defined it. They revisit the claims and forecasts that dominated early analysis and measure them against what actually happened.

The conversation tackles recurring assumptions about territorial concessions, predictions of Russian economic collapse, Moscow’s capacity to regenerate combat power, the battlefield impact of emerging technologies, and what, if anything, the U.S. military should take from Ukraine’s experience. Along the way, they examine why certain narratives proved so durable and where analysts, policymakers, and commentators misjudged the trajectory of the conflict.

The result is a candid discussion grounded in four years of evidence, equal parts reassessment and reckoning.

Image: Віталій Носач / РБК-Україна via Wikimedia Commons