Episode Notes:

Aybars Tuncdogan wrote “Why Many Underestimated Russia’s Invasion Risk” for War on the Rocks. Kerry talks with Aybars, an associate professor in digital innovation and information security at King’s College London, about his argument that many analysts, in the run-up to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, did not fully appreciate the extent to which Russian President Vladimir Putin had entrenched power — and how that reduced domestic political constraints on him. They discuss the need to incorporate this lesson into future assessments of risk involving leaders who had long tenures allowing them to entrench their power.

Image: The Kremlin via Wikimedia Commons