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The Dangerous Comfort of Underselling China’s Military

The Insider
Tom Shugart and Nicole Wiley
September 10, 2026

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Episode Notes:

Tom Shugart recently wrote, "The Risks of Downplaying China's Military," where he reacts to a sentiment that the United States could easily deter and defeat China in a war over Taiwan. Drawing on China's procurement of highly specific capabilities and the overemphasis on America's recent combat experience as a predictor of future military success, Tom explains why he believes the United States should be more cautious in its optimism.

Image: Shannon Renfroe via Wikimedia Commons