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The Commercial Space Race

August 13, 2026
The Commercial Space Race
The Commercial Space Race

The Commercial Space Race

Rebekah Reed, Kari A. Bingen, Katherine Melbourne, Lincoln Hines, and Jonathan Roll
August 13, 2026
A strong commercial space industry is an important partner for the U.S. government, as it contributes to building more robust space and defense capabilities and facilitates innovation more broadly. As competition between the United States and China heats up, both countries look to the commercial space sector to help them get ahead in both the space race and defense technologies. We asked five experts: What is a crucial step for the United States to take now to stay ahead in commercial space competition with China?Read more below.Rebekah ReedAssociate Director in the Belfer Center’s Program on Emerging Technology, Scientific Advancement, and Global Policy at the Harvard Kennedy SchoolThe road to deep space and sustained lunar operations depends on a capability we don’t have yet: cryogenic propellant transfer. China is already ahead of us on one piece of this: in 2025, it became the first nation to successfully demonstrate satellite-to-satellite hydrazine refueling in geostationary orbit. The Pentagon is funding multiple vendors through anchor-tenant contracts to build competing in-space refueling capabilities for national security satellites. The United States should apply that same model to cryogenic propellant transfer: NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services and Commercial Resupply Services programs filled the post-shuttle cargo gap, and the Commercial Lunar Payload Services project jumpstarted commercial lunar landing services. Extending this approach to deep-space fuel depot infrastructure would convert America’s heavy-lift lead into lasting operational dominance before China closes the gap. Roads need gas stations. Let’s make sure they are American.Kari A. BingenDirector of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International StudiesU.S. space companies are the world’s benchmark, but that lead is not guaranteed. China’s commercial space sector is expanding with extraordinary speed and ambition. Chinese launch startups, broadband internet companies, and satellite imagery firms are positioning themselves to capture more global market share by offering services from large satellite constellations and reusable rockets,

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A strong commercial space industry is an important partner for the U.S. government, as it contributes to building more robust space and defense capabilities and facilitates innovation more broadly. As competition between the United States and China heats up, both countries look to the commercial space sector to help them get ahead in both the space race and defense technologies. We asked five experts: What is a crucial step for the United States to take now to stay ahead in commercial space competition with China?Read more below.Rebekah ReedAssociate Director in the Belfer Center’s Program on Emerging Technology, Scientific Advancement, and

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