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In this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss Timothy Heath’s recent paper on China’s military capabilities. Heath argues that the People’s Liberation Army mostly focused on preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, and that does not necessarily translate to combat effectiveness. But is Heath right? Do we make a mistake in focusing too much on what is apparent from the outside? And if the People’s Liberation Army is not ready to fight right now, might it be in the future? Grievances for Lindsey Graham’s wish-casting on Trump and NATO, for the Trump administration blowing up transatlantic relations, and for European leaders being caught off guard. Attas for President Trump’s wisdom on nuclear weapons, to Narendra Modi for strengthening the U.S.-Indian relationship, and to Poland’s Donald Tusk, and France’s Ben Haddad, for taking the hard steps to try to build European self-reliance.

Episode Reading

• Timothy R. Heath, “The Chinese Military’s Doubtful Combat Readiness,” RAND, January 2025.
• Zeke Miller and Michelle L. Price, “Trump wants nuclear arms talks with Russia and China,” Defense News, Feb. 13, 2025.
• Emma Ashford, X post, Feb 15, 2025, 7:15 am
• Geoff Wilson, Christopher Preble, and Lucas Ruiz, “Gambling on Armageddon: How US Nuclear Policies Are Undercutting Deterrence and Lowering the Threshold for Nuclear War,” Stimson Center, Feb. 19, 2025.
• Xi Jinping, “Speech at China’s 20^th Party Congress,” Bloomberg, Oct. 18, 2022.
• Demetri Sevastopulo, Joe Leahy, Ryan McMorrow, et al., “China Builds Huge Wartime Military Command Centre in Beijing,” Financial Times, Jan. 30, 2025.
• David C. Logan, “The Evolution of the PLA’s Red-Blue Exercises,” The Jamestown Foundation, Mar. 14, 2017.

Image: People’s Liberation Army