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The fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 was a major blow to Russian influence and power projection in the Middle East. Russia’s lack of significant response — at least publicly — to Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran in June reinforced uncertainty about Moscow’s ability and willingness to support partners in the region, especially while it is spending extensive resources fighting Ukraine. Given the many changes in the Middle East in the last year, what is the state of Russia’s influence in the region? We asked five experts to answer that question from the perspective of Syria, Turkey, Iran, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, and Israel.Read more below.Anna Borshchevskaya Harold Grinspoon Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle EastRussia’s position in Syria is significantly weakened. Earlier this year, Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa noted “deep strategic” interests between Russia and Syria. His approach toward Moscow is guided by pragmatism — given Syria’s decades of reliance on Soviet and Russian military equipment and training, along with Russia’s regional and global position — rather than a desire to work with Russia.Moscow aims to leverage economic ties with the country — which are tied to state objectives — and exploit divisions within Syria over the long term, including by positioning Russia as a protector of minorities. The Russian embassy remains open. Russia retains a nominal presence in Tartus, though it had to pull most of its military assets out of the country. Reportedly, the Syrian government invited Russian oil company Tatneft to resume activities in the east of the country. Based on private conversations, the Syrian Democratic Forces — which are at odds with al-Sharaa’s central government — may have issued the invitation. Internal divisions within Syria suit Russia’s long-term interests of regaining control in