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Welcome to Rewind & Reconnoiter. Each week, we’ll ask one of our authors to look back at an article they’ve written for War on the Rocks in light of a current news event. Did their argument hold up? Read more below to find out.***In 2022, Timothy R. Heath, a senior international and defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, wrote “Is China Planning to Attack Taiwan? A Careful Consideration of Available Evidence Says No” for War on the Rocks, in which he argued that it was unlikely that the Chinese Communist Party would invade Taiwan. Following the victory of Lai Ching-te in presidential elections in Taiwan earlier this month, we asked him to look back on his article.Read more below.Image: China Military In your article, you argue, regarding Taiwan, that warnings “that Beijing could be tempted to follow Moscow’s example and attack a neighbor which it has long regarded as illegitimate” are overstated. How has this changed since your article was published? Do you expect it to change any time in the near future? I think the fears of the time were reasonable, but with the benefit of hindsight, we can see clearly that the danger of a Chinese attack on Taiwan really is overstated. There remains no evidence at all that China is seriously preparing for war with the United States and Taiwan. Evidence of military modernization and training is unconvincing because militaries are expected to carry out preparations for potential contingencies. China’s situation has worsened over time as its economy has slowed. Yet contrary to predictions that this would induce aggression, China’s foreign policy behavior has shown more caution. Chinese leaders have sought to ease tensions to some degree with the United States, not escalate them. At the end of the day, Taiwan simply isn’t a top priority for Chinese leaders compared to