In recent months, resistance forces in Myanmar have been making major gains against the country’s military junta, capturing vast swaths of territory in strategic border regions. Then, last week, the military recaptured the key trading hub of Myawaddy on the border with Thailand, just two weeks after the rebels had taken it. We asked four experts to weigh in on the current status of the conflict and whether these resistance forces could actually topple the military regime.Read more below.***Richard Horsey Senior Advisor on Myanmar Crisis GroupThere are numerous factors that explain how several ethnic armed groups in Myanmar have made stunning gains, capturing territory, towns, strategic bases, and overland trade routes in the last six months. Powerful armed groups launched offensives in different parts of the country at around the same time, overstretching regime forces. There is also low morale among frontline commanders, who are reeling from unprecedented losses and not being given the supplies and reinforcements they need. The top ranks are also riddled with corruption and incompetence. The buck stops with regime leader Min Aung Hlaing, who is under unprecedented political pressure. But there is no mechanism to remove him, and his downfall is not inevitable; it is impossible to know if anyone else will have the resolve and capability to take him down. The crisis will likely grind on. More losses for the military seem inevitable over the coming weeks, but no final battlefield defeat is looming — the powerful ethnic armies want autonomous control of their own territories and have little interest in marching on the capital. The parallel National Unity Government and broader political opposition have been peripheral to recent events, losing the initiative and ending up weaker. Nicola Williams Researcher, Doctoral Candidate, and Board Member Australian National UniversityThe recapture by the Myanmar military of a strategic Thailand-Myanmar border trade town, Myawaddy, from resistance
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In recent months, resistance forces in Myanmar have been making major gains against the country’s military junta, capturing vast swaths of territory in strategic border regions. Then, last week, the military recaptured the key trading hub of Myawaddy on the border with Thailand, just two weeks after the rebels had taken it. We asked four experts to weigh in on the current status of the conflict and whether these resistance forces could actually topple the military regime.Read more below.***Richard Horsey Senior Advisor on Myanmar Crisis GroupThere are numerous factors that explain how several ethnic armed groups in Myanmar have made stunning gains, capturing territory, towns, strategic bases, and
