Andrew Small, The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics (C. Hurst & Co, 2015)
In one of the many revealing anecdotes in Andrew Small’s new book on the relationship between China and Pakistan, a Chinese expert describes worries about the Islamization of the Pakistan Army. “We’re not worried about the generals, we’re worried the brigadiers,” the Chinese expert says. The generals were old enough to have established their habits by the time military ruler Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq seized power in a coup in 1977 and promoted a militant strain of Islam in the country and its army. “They drink, they send their children to study in the United States or Great Britain. The younger ones are sending their children to study in the Gulf.”
The comments highlight an often-overlooked ambivalence in China’s attitude to Pakistan. Though Beijing has always been willing to use Pakistan to counter India, its support is conditional. Like the United States and India, China worries about the threat posed by the rise of violent Islamism to the outside world and to Pakistan itself. That makes it a potential ally in helping to stabilize Pakistan. As Washington and New Delhi forge ever closer ties—highlighted by President Barack Obama’s visit to India—they will need careful diplomacy to avoid alienating China with talk of containing it and instead seek to enlist its help.
In The China-Pakistan Axis, Small recounts China’s role in helping Pakistan obtain nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable missiles by supplying technology and expertise—going as far as flying in supplies of highly enriched uranium—to help it keep pace with India’s nuclear weapons program. But China has never committed troops on Pakistan’s behalf, even during its many conflicts with India, and has often been more inclined to work with the United States to try to defuse a crisis than provide Pakistan with support.
As Small writes, “China would like to see the India-Pakistan relationship exist in a state of managed mistrust,” one which keeps India tied down in its own neighborhood rather than challenging China across their long land border or competing with it in the rest of Asia. But, particularly since India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in 1998, China has also fretted about the possibility of an all-out war between the two. Thus when Pakistan began a border conflict with India in the Kargil region of Jammu and Kashmir in 1999, China refused to provide military or diplomatic support. Significantly, Chinese officials were in regular contact with their U.S. counterparts during the Kargil crisis to ensure both Beijing and Washington delivered the same message to Pakistan about the need to pull back its troops. Those contacts would come as a surprise to many in Pakistan, which has tried to use its “all-weather friendship” with China to balance its often-antagonistic relationship with the United States, little realizing the two could also work together behind its back. Similarly, after the attack on Mumbai by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in 2008, China refused to use its veto in the United Nations Security Council to block sanctions against the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the front organization for the LeT. It would, as Small notes, be ready to help Pakistan in the event of an unexpected Indian invasion. But there would be no blank check to underwrite Pakistani adventurism. “As with its enduring assistance to Pakistan’s nuclear program, the most significant backing that China provides does not come in the midst of the latest crisis, but from the steady, long-term commitment to ensure that Pakistan has the capabilities it needs to play the role China wants it to,” writes Small.
There is, of course, a level of trust and intimacy between China and Pakistan that comes from the sharing of military and nuclear secrets. China also worked closely with Pakistan to supply weapons, paid for by the United States and Saudi Arabia, to militants fighting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989. Until relatively recently, moreover, it was able to rely on Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to gain access to the Afghan Taliban and other Islamist militants to ensure Chinese interests were left alone and Uighur militants from its Xinjiang region kept in check. But as Pakistan began to lose its grip on Islamist militants, China also lost some of its confidence in Pakistan. At home, China has faced increased attacks from Uighur militants; while in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, Chinese workers have been killed. Hence its worries about the Pakistan Army: it is one thing to support a national military against India and quite another to supply one being eaten away from within by a virulent strain of violent Islamism.
China’s concerns mean that while it had feared an outright U.S. victory in the Afghan war that would allow it to set up permanent military bases in the region, it also has common cause with Washington in its desire for regional stability. Indeed it was U.S. drone strikes rather than Pakistani troops that killed Uighur militant leaders wanted by China in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan.
The coincidence of interests between China and the United States is perhaps best illustrated by their views of the potential threat posed by Islamist militants to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Their views are not the same—Small writes that efforts by Washington to draw Beijing into discussions about contingency planning to secure nuclear weapons in the event of a crisis have been routinely rebuffed. But they do overlap. “Would we accept a U.S. intervention to seize Pakistan’s nuclear weapons? No. Are we as worried as [the United States] about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons? No,” Small quotes a Chinese expert as saying. “But China is willing to help Pakistan defend a Pakistani bomb. We won’t help them protect an Islamic bomb. If it’s under the control of a mullah, then everything changes. It’s not unconditional.”
China, like the United States and India, is obviously hoping it won’t come to that. It is still making plans for an economic corridor through Pakistan that would link western China with the Gulf. Those plans could anchor Pakistan into a more stable framework of rising economic growth if security is improved enough to permit it. Small’s book, however, is an important reminder that if Pakistan continues to slide into instability, China’s help will be sorely needed. It should be compulsory reading for anyone too carried away by the euphoria of warming U.S.-India ties and tempted to believe China can be nudged out of the picture.
Myra MacDonald is a former Reuters journalist who has reported on Pakistan and India since 2000. She is the author of “Heights of Madness”, a book on the Siachen war fought in the mountains beyond Kashmir on the world’s highest battlefield. She is now working on a book about how the relationship between India and Pakistan was changed by their nuclear tests in 1998. She lives in Scotland and can be found on Twitter @myraemacdonald.
Photo credit: Anthony Maw
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Once again Ms. Macdonald writes a somewhat depressing view of Pakistan and it’s politics.
Ms. Macdonald seems to think that the US and India do not have anything to do with the state of Pakistan’s current circumstances. India has and continues to deal with Pakistan from a position of great insecurity. It is after all the regional hegemon. It has dismembered the country by aiding and abetting in the creation of Bangladesh. There is far too much history for either party to wish to stop interference in each others affairs. India cannot be dealt with as if it is a stable polity. It has had several governments with political parties whose stated policies border on fascism and who deify Adolf Hitler.
The US on the other hand walks away after it uses Pakistan for its purposes. Were the US truly a friend it would start supporting trade by opening it’s market up to Pakistan. The FTA has been stuck for the past decade, cheap LNG supplies from the US are stymied by a hypocritical and duplicitous congress. No Ms. Macdonald you write with a clear bias.
China is an ally of Pakistan since it has a memory. Yes it is concerned about the radicalisation of society and it is concerned about the instability of the Pakistani nation, through no small effort of India and the US. As to the nuclear device whether it is religious in nature Ms. Macdonald seems to think that India’s nuclear assets are safe in the hands of a Hindu fundamentalist and tried murderer who was repeatedly denied visas to the US Is better?
Ms. Macdonald may I invite you to visit Pakistan and meet for yourself a nation which is much misunderstood and maligned by those who know little of its people society and politics. If Ms. Santana of Fox News can be sent to Pakistan why don’t you spend a little time with an open mind and see whether the country deserves your withering attention.
India not a stable politi? And Pakistan a stable peace seeking nation? How does that work. Oh I forget you are a student of Pakistani history which is devoid of any facts but based on myths.
As for Bangladesh, ask how many Bangladeshi share that sentiment? It was not India but the inability of your own military and administration to govern. Had you shown Bengalis a bit more respect and not treat them like second class citizens maybe they would have never revolted.
The entire country faces an identity crisis and has developed a victim mentality. Never willing to take a look in the mirror and innovating conspiracy theories.
As for india being a hegemon I fail to understand pakistan’s paranoia and obsession in seeking parity. I mean india has 6 times the population, 10 times the size of pakistans economy and has a far bigger eastern boarder with china and a huge costal border, so our military will naturally be bigger. So on what basis do you seek parity? Diplomatic? That comes on the basis of ones domestic economy and strength. Yours is in shambles, no water, no electricity, no gas, no cng, no petrol and you seek parity with India? Point is get your house in order rather than moaning about everything else, and india has nothing to do with that.
i request you pls take back your comment. as
1. India is democratic nation, unlike pakistan where democratic government follows the order of military and if not then COUP (Read news after PAK PM india visit, Nepal visit, and NOW – pak pm is powerless to make any strong decisions even if he is good pm)
2. Bangladesh happened only because of pakistan’s crime against East pakistan’s people. Read history . India just help out to happen it early.
3.Every Nation is on there own. Ofcourse US only looks after its own interest. Also china too will do the same. If pakistan really wanted to change its image internationally it has to solve its own internal problems and become an economically strong nation. Afterall pakistan has its own type of wealth and potential. Then world will listen to its words.
4. Regarding Nuclear weapons use by india, It has ‘ No first use’ policy. Also India is trying to build lot of Nuclear Reactors to solve its starving Energy needs. So now whatever Govt in India wont touch Nuclear weapon unless it is really neccessary and wont backfire on Nuclear power ambitions.
India is a democratic county joke modi is a terrorist
Glad that Modi has you guys scare **itless. No longer can you radicals inflict harm and then take refuge under the cover of religion. Democratic India has elected Modi and that includes all moderate people of all religion.
If India has dismembered your country that what has stopped you to make it one again? What steps have you taken for that?
What about you dismembering India in 1947, was that OK?
Why you wanted to kill all the Bangladeshi? Have you given punishment to those who did the genocide in Bangladesh?
India acted as per UN resolution.
But all Pakistani acts like Adolf hitler, their minorities are down from 25% to 5%.
Pakistan has been the second recipient of US aid. According to US Pakistani used USA and got atom bomb.
Who is a Hindu Fundamentalist?
Who wants to meet people like you who suffers from identity crisis?
Pakistani army has a dubious record of actually butchering millions of its own citizens in East Pakistan. Its committing genocide by bombarding, all out military assaults and targeting killing across the nation, particularly in Waziristan, Baluchistan and Sindh. Pakistanis is dominated by one ethnic group that is Punjabi Sunnis that make up 45% of the population but have access to 90% of the powerful jobs and resources. Pakistan has committed greater genocide than Nazis by systemic mass genocides, forced conversion and continuous ethnic cleansing of Hindus and Sikhs, who have been reduced from 25% population to under less than 2%, that is to 3 million as against 45 million. This is the largest genocide in post-modern history and is even worse than Nazi decimation of Jews that led to six million deaths.
I am so intrigued by your disappointment. I can understand the defence you need to put up as a Pakistani citizen. However, facts remain facts, no matter how bitter they are…
And I am Ms.Macdonald would like to visit Pakistan to change her view, but probably its the constant fireworks in your towns and cities; which she’d rather watch from a distance.
Mac Donald you are setting far away from Pakistan and u reached the conclusion that Pakistan is a terrorist & fundamentalist Country.
They are two type of research Practical & other is Theoretical Research.
U have theoretical Research. U should come Pakistan. I am strongly beleive ur opinion will be change
And if her mind doesn’t change by a visit to a Pakistan, you can charge her with blasphemy.
This article if flawed…
“China refused to use its veto in the United Nations Security Council to block sanctions against the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the front organization for the LeT.”
Do you seriously believe this? Chinese vetoed more than 3 times.. till US pressured and by next year Pakistan JuD was running under some other name, still following terror activities..
China is not pakistian all weather friend even Pakistan knows, its game is jehadis coming from pakistan and stone wall Muslims in Xinjiang province which it has forcefully occupied like Tibet – The day that wall is weakened or broken the friendship is down the drain.
Let Chinese fully and openly Back Pakistan – China knows its a hard ball to play with India and if it does… Indian might be a slow moving country but when it takes action on security its very much weight in Europen, Aisan, American and Australian Big nations.. and world is eager for China to crack into pieces due to their worst polities than Russia
USA and China helped Pakistan go Nuclear. So did the Republic of South Africa. While China got them the delivery capability from North Korea. Pakistan brokered the entente cordiale between the US and China. But, there is Islam. While the US plays all sides of Islam for profit for a few if not the country, China has a tentative ambivalence. China is thrice the size of India (when you include territories like Tibet that it has acquired by conquest) with plans to grow bigger fast. India is too close to China to ever be comfortable. The US, (not just China), is a traditional ally of every enemy of India’s. Russia is the only sensible country on India’s map for the present.
the problem for Pakistan is military itself. they bound themselves as Gods creeds.
if someone following news of Pakistan from past 2 months he would think before Peshawar Army Public School attack no child would have killed right because it was point to declare that “there is no good or bad Taliban” “to protect our generation we must wipe them out”
but no, that’s not truth, from past decade military propaganda machine criticize drone attacks based on innocent killing, until last December when they acknowledge drone strike as their own shadowy program and conducted after requested and identification of target, sudden at all every innocent death justified.
many children killed even before school attack, in drone, in other attacks. but they worth just junk because they were not born of a General’s sperm.
Pakistan establish relations with China along US, that was ok but US cant have dual relation.
from years after years they inform US as God’s enemy, and holy duty to destroy US. and now all have changed, US must be good friend of Pakistan as US buds with India.
Chinese are still wrong, its not Islam that young in military loves, its mean a tool which looks good as long as redistricted to other
the best punishment for them is brought Islam over them, forcedly implemented.
they never learn, even until now military refuse to have a black spot over them, they never accept that military ever did something thing bad, this is what which chase them as ghost, and they will live in their nightmare, of being “Good” by force and punishment.
What did we do to deserve this? Is this our mistake for helping USA fight the Soviets? Our mistake for setting a meeting of Henry Kissinger with China? Our mistake for Accepting 5 million Afghanistan nationals as refugees when they had nowhere to go? Our mistake for deciding to eliminate terrorists hiding near border regions? Our mistake for trying to acknowledge our mistakes, what is it that you people want? Our mistake for trusting Bush? Our mistake for being ruled for 50 years by crazy army dictators? Our mistake that the British left this area of India, Kashmir and Pakistan in shambles when they left? Yes we are Muslims (96% of the countries population that is)…, doesn’t mean we aren’t human…, there are sane people in Pakistan too, we know we have some problems it will take time to fix.
– I DIDN’T CHOOSE FOR WHO ARE GOING TO BE MY PARENTS, NEITHER DID I CHOOSE WHERE I AM BORNED OR WHICH COUNTRY I BELONG TO, NEITHER DID I CHOOSE WHAT RELIGION I PREFER.
I am ashamed of the hypocrisy humanity has come to – and am ashamed and disgusted other people who think they are the only ones who know what’s best, if it were that easy to know what’s good for human beings we wouldn’t have gone through the world-wars that occurred…, but it’s not that easy; we humans know nothing therefore we should learn to behave optimal and proactive when it’s needed.
Surely, it seems people have problems looking back at history. Although I do agree with the religious extremism part, maybe you’ll feel at ease if all of Pakistan became secular? Well yes Muhammad Ali Jinnah did support the idea, until he died coughing blood non-stop…, then some crazy army generals came with their extremist Islamic thinking turning Pakistan into an “Islamic Republic” along with picking fights with India…? What did you expect? The army lives for war not spreading flowers. The army knew their reign shall end and it did. Now the civilians in Pakistan are waking up REVIEWING HISTORY PIECE BY PIECE.
Above all that, while we are busy troubleshooting, reviewing and carefully analyzing our mistakes we got a bunch of people who don’t even have anythin to do with Pakistan maligning, acting like experts on the country and even as going as far as to writing silly articles!
Shameful much? Look give us a break, if you aren’t Pakistani then don’t write or ‘act’ like an expert about my country or the people which reside in it. Thanks a lot and grow up.
Well said! Bravo!
I don’t have much time so can’t reply whole article but to some points:
What did we do to deserve this? Is this our mistake for helping USA fight the Soviets?
: Yes; it was Pak’s greed. in 1947 India choose NOT to take US or Russia’s side but Pak wanted aid from US and they sided US. It was not that Pak was helping US in any way.
Our mistake for Accepting 5 million Afghanistan nationals as refugees when they had nowhere to go?
: Yes; On pakistan’s support US weaponize Al-Qaida to fight against Soviet. Pakistan always had interest in Afghan’s internal affair. Pakistan was FIRST and long time ONLY country to support taliban govt in Afghanistan; and now you say you don’t support terrorism when they killed 130 kids? It only hurts when its your kids you don’t care humans live outside of Pakistan too? Pak army safely harbor all terrorist weather it is Osama ben laden or dawood or mumbai attack mastermind Lakhvi. But I guess you feel proud about that.
Our mistake for trying to acknowledge our mistakes, what is it that you people want?
: I would respect if you acknowledge your mistakes; but for that you need to learn more and know them.
Our mistake for trusting Bush?
: Na; you guys just trusted his dollars man; who you are kidding?
Yes we are Muslims (96% of the countries population that is)…, doesn’t mean we aren’t human…, there are sane people in Pakistan too, we know we have some problems it will take time to fix.
: Yes; you are human, but rest of 4% living in Pak and rest of world outside are human too. First start from home; start respecting your muslim neighbors; stop blowing up shiites or shias mosques or kill them. Thyen stop killing non-muslims in your country. Its long road for you guys to be muslim yet; you just born in Islam family!
You seem emotional and i think in most part you are right about what you say, but when comes to absorbing 5 million Agfhani refugees your country has played an orchestrated dirty rule. To destroy Afghanistan as country and one nation.And as pakistani you know what I’m talking about? The misery you and your masters-the american and the Saudis- inflected on afghan people is unforgettable. I’ve been to Pakistan and have visited many cities. Your country is in disparate needs of basic infrastructure, forget the rivalry.
Dear all do not afraid from Islam .Islam means peace. Islam is not only order to safe Muslim but all human Kind and do not allow any body to use any destructive mass weapon even thou on enemy. Islam strictly prohibit the killing of children, women, old person even thou protect cattle and garden from destruction. See. Holy Quran And Hadis Nabvee .
All Muslim of the world want to stop cruelty on other human .
Pakistan always want to Embrace India Several time but we don t know that why,they hate us. China is our most reliable friend and every one know its better.
What is the real threat China is facing from India so that it has to do so much PR with Pak
Only ten years, with Afghan mess, and yet Indians lecture us. Don’t forget we have always been way ahead of you, from cricket to anything you name.
As far as Modi goes, it was Mr vajpayee came through babri mosque, this guy came through Gujarat. Democracy in Indian means how many have you slaughtered, the more the better.
Whenever there is a bull on the lose in Afghanistan, Pakistan pays. Read news paper archive, if you must from the 80’s. You will see the same problems. Once USA leaves the area, let’s see who is who then. Yes, we are afraid, you guys may send your 5000 years old air force here.
Pakistan is a new country in a difficult neighborhood. From that perspective we are doing good. Once we clean our house we will be better. This is what frightens Indians and makes them say hateful comments towards us.
As in light of article, china is supporting pakistan and as a part of big game. Nation like India Russia iran and us have their own interests and if we look at the interest of Pakistan we should join hands with china and develop gawadar as economic hub.
In this sense Pakistan will grow. Good news is china already started huge movement on Pak china economic corridor. Bells are ringing for US India & Russia. Iran Uae.
China will soon pay for this deadly “KARMA”.
Shame they revere the Buddha. All Buddhist monasteries were destroyed by fanatic Islamic invaders for 8 centuries. Buddha at Bamia were destroyed by Pakistan-supported Taliban.
China knows that a rosary is no match for sword and fire.Their national character is greed and not religion.
Protect your people now. India is capable enough to learn from history.
Population of India halved in 7 centuries of Islamic rule till year 1900 because of extermination of non-Muslims and warfare.
Result was one – third of the population was Muslim in 1947.
We had to give them another country because they didn’t want their slaves to rule them.
92% Muslims supported the creation of Pakistan(+Bangladesh) but only 1/3 of their population went to live in it.
Pakistan became a theocracy and continued it’s atrocities against the non-Muslims and reduced them to a mere 2%.
On the other hand, idealists in India supported democracy because that is “Dharma” and Muslims were allowed to practice polygamy because it is their “dharma”. Now Indian Muslims are 17% from 8% at the time of partition.
People are afraid they may demand for Sharia Law if they reach a considerable population.Nationalists are called fundamentalists in India. People don’t remember the brutal past. History text-books glorify those Muslim rulers who killed so many Indians. Muslims live in denial. Only higher education in history tells one the real history.
Our children don’t read the actual history.
This is probably done to protect their minds from hatred towards the Muslims.
But after all this, we have all the problems.
When did India abandon Idealism?
Still India is suffering.
I don’t think India has ill-treated the Muslim community. Riots have taken place and people who don’t weapons lose their life, which is rare with Muslims. Muslims die because they are a minority and non-Muslims die because they are not all warriors.
Muslim minority is best for any nation. Otherwise it becomes a 100% Muslim country.
China decides now. “Dhamma” or “Islam”?