President Obama’s now infamous assertion that the U.S. intelligence community underestimated the threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) brought to mind the adage attributed to Sherman Kent, a former professor at Yale recruited into the Office of Strategic Services and widely regarded as the father of CIA’s Directorate of Intelligence, …

Calder Walton, Empire of Secrets: British Intelligence, the Cold War and the Twilight of Empire, (New York: The Overlook Press, 2013). The period of British decolonization and America’s present strategic situation are vastly different, of course, but in this way they are similar: they are both times of brushfire wars, terrorism, and political turmoil in …

This is the second of a two-part podcast set on the concept, and uses, of Strategic Intelligence. In this episode, Marc and Tom discuss how intelligence functions within democratic societies in an effort to look at how a theory of intelligence can emerge.  Following up on the first part of the podcast, we look at …

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a hot topic in the defense community. Since the publication of P.W. Singer’s Wired for War, analysts have debated whether or not we are truly moving towards what Manuel Landa dubbed “war in the age of intelligent machines” in his 1992 book of the same name. In particular , the morality …

This is the first of a two-part podcast set on the concept, and uses, of Strategic Intelligence.  In this episode, Tom and I lay out the actual, social function of Strategic Intelligence and look at it place in the long history of divination.  Strategic surprise, or intelligence failures, often are neither: a surprise or a …

I’ve been intrigued by the recent proposals to establish some sort of international agreement stating that U.S. intelligence agencies would not spy on European governments and vice versa.  As a way of considering whether any such arrangement is actually feasible, I’ve been thinking of historical precedents.  It seems to me that there are a few …

Among everyday Americans, most of the controversy generated by the Snowden leaks relates to civil liberties at home.  However, if one reads comment threads and online discussions of the eavesdropping revelations, there is another set of arguments promulgated by many opponents of the NSA’s activities, especially non-Americans. Of course, as John Amble noted on this …

Forty years ago an intense controversy gripped the intelligence community over estimates of the Soviet strategic threat. Hardliners outside the community had complained that intelligence analysts were routinely underestimating Soviet capabilities and intentions because they relied on social science models that assumed rationality and reduced threat assessment to a bean counting exercise. What they should …

The ongoing discussion over potential reforms to the Goldwater-Nichols Act provides an opportunity for government leaders to address an important segment of the civilian–military divide. The majority of discussions around this divide focus on the growing division between civil society and the military — partly a repercussion of the move to an all-volunteer force following …

Editor’s Note: This article is adapted from the author’s remarks to East Bay Citizens for Peace of the Barrington Congregational Church and the American Friends Service Committee on April 2, 2016 in Barrington, Rhode Island. The original speech was published at the author’s personal website.   One of our most charming characteristics as Americans is …

The fourth and final Nuclear Security Summit meeting, held in Washington DC, has been the catalyst for a flood of op-eds bemoaning either the imminent emergence of sub-state groups as nuclear powers or the relative lack of progress that President Obama has made on reducing the number of U.S. nuclear weapons. Both of these views …

The Islamic State’s attacks in Paris and Belgium have demonstrated key vulnerabilities in European law enforcement and intelligence agencies. For several years, members of the Europe-based Islamic State network responsible for the attacks had moved through Turkey to join with the group in Syria. From the outset of the Syrian conflict, Turkish–European cooperation on this …

Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote a lengthy article that attempts to give a historical background for — as well as justification of — Russian actions, from a wider civilizational context. Lavrov, a veteran of word wizardry, is at his best here, driving us through carefully selected phases of Russian history, including the Mongolian …

As Syrian forces push their advantage against the Islamic State, it is increasingly clear that there are Russians on the ground with them. Some are Spetsnaz special forces, there for recon and forward air control, but others are mercenaries, working for a shadowy outfit in St. Petersburg. Increasingly, the Kremlin is waking up to the …

Most defense policy watchers have heard of it. They know it is coming. And while it is the kind of thing many Pentagon officials, military leaders, and members of Congress might wish to ignore, it will be here before they know it. “It,” of course, is the modernization “bow wave” the U.S. military will encounter …