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Walker at Reuters: Preventing World War III in Syria between Turkey and Russia

NATO entered uncharted territory on Tuesday when one of its members, Turkey, shot down a Russian warplane. There is an urgent need for Washington to bring both sides together to avoid World War Three. Read this article at Reuters. Joshua W. Walker, Ph.D. (@drjwalk) leads the Japan work of the Asia Program at the German …

Why the U.S. Should Be Paying Attention to Russia’s Latest Strikes in Syria

This week, Russia expanded on its campaign in Syria with a series of 34 air-launched cruise missile strikes, perhaps even eclipsing the October 7 cruise missile launches from Russia’s Caspian Flotilla. Just as with the ship-based missile strikes, the United States should pay attention to this air vector of attack from Russia’s mainland, and the …

Let the Russians Bleed in Syria While We Focus on Containing Jihadists

The announcement of a major Russian surge in its support for Syria still has Washington reeling. Combined with the announcement that Russia, Iraq, and Iran have entered an agreement to enhance intelligence-sharing to combat the self-proclaimed Islamic State, this confluence of events raised blood pressures among the Western press. Looking at these developments from a …

The Russian Intervention in Syria: Policy Options and Exit Strategies

Russia’s air campaign in Syria, along with a ground offensive led by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, are shedding light on Moscow’s military and political objectives. Where earlier there was only room for informed speculation we can now make firmer judgments. In Syria, as in Ukraine, the Western perception of Russia’s approach is often divorced …

A New Plan for the United States in Syria

Gen. David Petraeus called the conflict in Syria “a geopolitical Chernobyl, spewing instability and extremism over the region and the rest of the world.” Now in its fifth year, the war has claimed over 250,000 lives, displaced nearly half the population, and literally torn the country apart. In the process, it has evolved into a …

Russia’s Arsenal in Syria: What Do We Know?

Russia’s campaign in Syria is about saving the Syrian regime by recapturing as much of the territory lost this spring as possible and translating those military gains into a much stronger negotiating hand. These strikes target the Army of Conquest and Free Syrian Army forces surrounding and inside the regime’s territory. A combined Russian, Iranian, …

Russia’s Counterterrorism Gamble in Syria and the Caucasus

Once again, Russia has turned to the counterterrorism card to seek a way out of its precarious situation at home and in the international arena. During his address to the UN General Assembly, President Vladimir Putin stressed the importance of fighting against terrorism: “Relying on international law, we must join efforts to address the problems that all of us …

Why Israel Should Be Worried About Russia’s Role in Syria

On September 21, Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu met with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, a meeting that focused on staying out of each other’s way in Syria. According to statements by both leaders, it seems the meeting went well. Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s main concerns in Syria, namely arms shipments to Hezbollah and Iran opening a …

The State of Russian Strategy: Ukraine, Syria, and Beyond

Dmitry Gorenburg, an occasional WOTR contributor and expert on Russian military affairs at the CNA Corporation, sat down with Ryan Evans to chat about the state of Russia’s armed forces, its campaigns in Ukraine and Syria, Putin as a strategist, and how one becomes an expert on Russian military affairs. Have a listen!    

How Russia’s Gambit in Syria Changes the Game

A large uptick in the influx of Russian weapons and equipment into Syria in recent weeks, along with 200 additional naval infantry, has fueled speculation that Moscow is preparing for an expanded role in the conflict.  President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, coyly suggested on September 18th that Russia would indeed consider sending more troops …

How to Lose a Civil War: Lessons for Afghanistan and Syria

In a number of civil wars, the final, decisive mistake of the incumbent government occurred when it decided for reasons of prestige or strategy to overextend its military to hold exposed positions, thus inviting the destruction of key military assets. This was the case of Chiang Kai-shek’s post-WWII attempt to hold Manchuria, which ended in …

Turkey’s Syria Strategy: All About Domestic Politics?

The prospects for a coalition government in Turkey have faded away, and Turks are about to witness yet another election — the fourth poll in the past two years. The rise of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) as a challenger to the Justice and Development Party (AKP) was in fact a crucial factor behind …

The Trouble with Turkey’s Favorite Syrian Islamists

In April 2012, Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu authored a paper that was to be the basis for Turkey’s Arab Spring doctrine — a “values-based foreign policy” for a region in flux. Davutoglu articulated an interventionist approach according to which Turkey would pursue greater regional integration and encourage representative democracy. He also repeated …

Why the New Syrian Army Failed: Washington and Unconventional Warfare

All public signs point to failure in a key U.S. effort to turn the tide of the brutal Syrian civil war — the training and fielding of a vetted and politically palatable Syrian force to fight the Islamic State. As Nancy Youssef reveals in The Daily Beast, exasperated U.S. officials are trying to adapt in the …

Like It or Not, a Solution in Syria Is the Only Way to Defeat ISIL

Thirteen months have passed since the city of Mosul and one-third of Iraq fell to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The U.S.-led coalition, however, still has no comprehensive strategy for dealing with the grave threat ISIL continues to represent. While the Iraqi military is back on the offensive following the fall …

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