Will Pakistan Draw Closer to Saudi Arabia to balance Iran?
The dramatic escalation of the Saudi–Iran rift in early January has triggered renewed speculation that Pakistan will be forced to pick sides and join its longtime Saudi ally to militarily balance Iran. As much as some might welcome, even hope for this development, Pakistan has good reason to be wary of such an alignment against …
The Cyber Threat to Nuclear Deterrence
In late 2010, when the Stuxnet worm was reported to have targeted and disabled nuclear enrichment centrifuges in Iran, a proverbial line in the sand was crossed that linked the rising awareness of cyber threats with that of the existing nuclear world. Though it is believed that Stuxnet was intended to slow the proliferation of …
Lessons on American Strength from Iran and the Sailors
Many critics of the Obama administration are apoplectic over Iran’s seizure of U.S. sailors who unintentionally strayed into Iranian waters off Farsi Island in the Persian Gulf where they were then stranded. No matter that the Iranians returned the sailors to the Navy unharmed, along with their patrol boats, in less than 24 hours after …
Navigating the Post-Iran Deal Waters in the Gulf
It has been a remarkable week for diplomacy — and for the United States and Iran. On January 16, the International Atomic Energy Agency verified that Iran’s nuclear breakout time has been extended to at least one year in accordance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Subsequently, sanctions tied to the JCPOA implementation …
Iran Gave Back the Sailors, but the Persian Gulf is Still a Powder Keg
There is no getting around it. Yesterday’s seizure of two U.S. naval vessels by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards was not a minor incident. It was significant and could have gone a lot worse. That it was resolved peacefully, and in relatively short order, is good news. But there is also cause for concern. Iran is dealing …
Why We Still Need a Nuclear-Armed Cruise Missile
“History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme,” Mark Twain is reported to have said. Two years ago, also at War on the Rocks, Elbridge Colby responded forcefully to an op-ed calling for the elimination of the Air Force’s nuclear-armed Long Range Standoff (LRSO) missile that is to replace the existing nuclear-equipped cruise missile, …
This Deal or War? Misadventures in Deterring Iran
President Obama’s defense of the Iran nuclear deal rests on a simple premise: It’s either this deal or war. According to the administration, not only is there no better deal to be had, but the inevitable consequence of rejecting the deal will be an eventual military conflict with Iran. Our government’s acceptance of the deal is …
Good, Bad, and Ugly Options for Congress After the Iran Agreement
Now that President Barack Obama has secured enough congressional support to move forward with implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the next debate will be about new measures Congress may enact to complement (or torpedo) the agreement with Iran. Opponents and supporters of the agreement, including Obama himself, have indicated the need …
Is Turkey’s War on Terror a Consequence of the Iran Deal?
The deal negotiated by the P5+1 with Iran on its nuclear program has been heralded by supporters as a historic agreement and regional game-changer. Much of the international criticism thus far has centered on Israeli and Gulf Arab skepticism about the deal. Overlooked in these discussions, however, is the significant impact the Iran deal is …
How the AP Got the Iran Inspections Story Wrong
A new controversy over a small facility on an Iranian military base at Parchin now threatens to blow up the support President Obama needs to get the Iranian nuclear agreement past Congress. Unfortunately, the controversy is the result of shoddy reporting and a poor understanding of nuclear inspections. The Parchin site, which is southeast of …
Does the Legality of Nuclear War Matter?
Seventy years ago, Japan offered its unconditional surrender to the United States and Allied Powers. The surrender was predicated, at least in part, on the first usage of nuclear weapons in war. The two U.S. nuclear detonations over Hiroshima and Nagasaki helped convince the Japanese strategic leadership defeat was inevitable and broke the empire’s will …
History’s Real Lessons on the Iran Deal
Opponents of the Iran nuclear deal see many virtues and no significant risks in congressional disapproval of the agreement. And they often advance their views with historical arguments. Unfortunately for them and the larger debate on the Iran deal, their reading of history is flawed. If Congress misses the opportunity to help secure America’s interests …
Why Afghanistan is a Big Winner in the U.S.–Iran Deal
In the days since the United States and Iran concluded their landmark nuclear accord, much has been said about the deal’s geopolitical implications. Most U.S. media coverage has focused on ramifications for the Middle East: How will Iran’s nemeses Israel and Saudi Arabia respond? Will Mideast sectarian tensions increase? Will the accord embolden Iran and …
Lassitude in the Legislature on Iran
Editor’s Note: This piece on the War on the Rocks Hasty Ambush blog is published in partnership with the Hoover Institution’s new Military History in the News, a weekly column from the Hoover Institution that reflects on how the study of the past alone allows us to make sense of the often baffling daily violence, not by offering exact parallels …
North Korea Is Not Iran
After two years of intense negotiations, the P5+1 reached an agreement with Iran that would limit its ability to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting a set of international sanctions. With this landmark deal, South Korean politicians were optimistic that it would compel Kim Jong-Un of North Korea to consider denuclearization as a viable …
