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Moscow’s Mercenaries in Syria

As Syrian forces push their advantage against the Islamic State, it is increasingly clear that there are Russians on the ground with them. Some are Spetsnaz special forces, there for recon and forward air control, but others are mercenaries, working for a shadowy outfit in St. Petersburg. Increasingly, the Kremlin is waking up to the …

The Syrian Civil War and the End of Turkey’s Liberal Dream

Throughout recent history, Turkish foreign policy has habitually followed international norms and placed its faith in international organizations, especially in matters of defense. As a result, the country’s strategic character stood out among its neighbors. Yet the fallout from the Syrian Civil War has forced Ankara to move away from its rules-oriented liberal approach to …

Are CIA-backed Syrian Rebels Really Fighting Pentagon-backed Syrian Rebels?

The Los Angeles Times’ contention Sunday that “in Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA” is basically incorrect. This is complicated, but bear with me. The Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are not a monolithic force. Like nearly every other faction in Syria, they’re spread across an archipelago of enclaves …

The Three Faces of Russian Spetsnaz in Syria

As the Russian drawdown from Syria continues, more information continues to emerge about the forces Moscow had committed to shoring up the Assad regime. One telling aspect is how involved Russia’s Spetsnaz special forces were in the deployment. They were involved in two of their three core missions — reconnaissance and special security missions — …

There is No Russian Withdrawal from Syria

With characteristic deadpan delivery, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the sudden withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria earlier this week, declaring their campaign a success.  Before the day was through, Russian aircraft and crews were already departing from Hmeymim air base in Latakia.  Since this announcement, the media has been alight with speculation on the …

Syria and the Credible Commitments of World Powers

A variety of pundits and politicians have suggested that the chaos in Syria could lead to the next major global conflict. These predictions reached a fever pitch late last year when NATO member Turkey shot down a Russian jet and resumed again in recent weeks after Turkey warned Russia of “consequences” for continuing to violate …

The Promise and Peril of Changing U.S. Strategy in Syria

The Russian bombardment of Aleppo has prompted calls for the United States to dramatically alter its approach to the Syrian conflict. Washington is currently losing its clandestine war against Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Russian intervention has altered the dynamics on the battlefield, largely because its air force has shown no remorse over the mass …

High Time for Intervention: The United States Must Invest in Its Partners to Turn Syria Around

If the U.S. government has learned one lesson in Syria, it must be this: Things can always get worse. Since the beginning of February, more than 80,000 Syrians have massed in Bab al-Salama, across from Turkey’s Öncüpınar border crossing. Following a relentless campaign of Russian bombing, Bashar al-Assad’s regime forces advanced in Aleppo’s countryside, cutting …

The Russian Quagmire in Syria and Other Washington Fairy Tales

Facts on the ground change so quickly in Syria that one could be forgiven for suffering whiplash. Still in December of last year we were reading headlines that depicted a lackluster Russian military campaign, unable to change much on the ground for the fledgling Syrian Arab Army. Not long after the winter holidays, the opposite …

After the Geneva Talks: Re-Setting U.S. Strategy for Western Syria

The announcement of an agreement by the United States and Russia on a possible temporary cessation of hostilities in Syria is a positive development, though we are skeptical that this deal will hold or ever even go into effect. Until there are fundamental changes on the ground there will be no major breakthroughs in the …

The Syria Ceasefire Plan is a Sign of the Decaying World Order

Editor’s Note: This article is adapted from Sen. McCain’s speech at the Munich Security Council, which addressed the recent agreement on the cessation of hostilities in Syria. I wish I could share the views of some of my friends who see this agreement as a potential breakthrough, but unfortunately I do not. I want to …

Prospects for a Turkish Incursion into Syria

Recent gains by the Assad regime in its ongoing northern offensive — in particular, the recapture of the Shiite towns of Nubl and Zahra — pose a significant geostrategic threat to Turkey and the opposition groups based in and around Azaz. The regime and its allies are now in a favorable position to cut the lines of communication between the Turkish border areas …

A Cause For All Turks: Turkey and Syria’s Turkmen Rebels

For better and for worse, people all over the world have recently been paying attention to Syria’s Turkmen minority. It was over a Turkmen area in northwest Syria that the Turkish military downed a Russian Sukhoi Su-24M in November, sparking a genuine geopolitical crisis. Turkey had pointedly warned Russia against bombing Turkmen villages, even summoning …

Deja Vu? Debating a U.S. Intervention in Syria in 1919

The horrific attacks in Paris on November 13 have increased calls for the United States to take a greater role in Syria. This is not the first time that the question of American involvement in Syria has arisen. Almost a century ago, in the midst of another Syrian crisis, the United States faced pressure to …

Dayton’s Lessons for Syria

Twenty years ago, the Dayton peace agreement ended a brutal ethnic war in Bosnia. The agreement, negotiated by U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base near Dayton, Ohio, was formally signed in Paris in December 1995. Between 1992 and 1995, the Bosnian War killed at least 100,000 people, most of them civilians. By the …

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